Sunday, March 15, 2015

Final bracket and some contingencies.

I've been working on a final bracket during the games today and have completed it, assuming a Wisconsin and SMU win. Wisconsin is currently down 11 with 7:44 left. SMU is up 8 with 7:08 left. So we have to make with the contingency plans. If Wisconsin loses, they are not a #1 seed. I think that will go to Arizona in the West. Wisconsin will be a #2 in the Midwest with Kentucky as the #1. In the East, Villanova (#1) will still pair with Virginia (#2). The south is also the same with Duke and Kansas. Gonzaga will move out west to join Arizona. I don't want to predict any more than that because the geographical considerations begin changing a lot.

If Connecticut wins, they will slot in the tournament in one of the #11 seeds. I'm thinking they knock Indiana out of the bracket if this happens… or at least that is my contingency plan. I think the Hoosiers have already made their bed one way or another. They have some good non-conference wins (Butler, SMU), as well as other in-conference top 50 wins, which puts them in good shape compared to others on the bubble. However, they also had a very low non-conference strength of schedule, which is typically a major deciding point. Anyway, I think Indiana is in, despite them being the last team on my S-Curve and therefore the team that would fall out. It's illogical and I hate being illogical.

I won't have time to update again before the selection show.

Regional Cleveland Syracuse Houston Los Angeles
1st 2 Rounds Louisville Pittsburgh Charlotte Omaha
1 Kentucky (SEC) Villanova (Big East) Duke Wisconsin (Big Ten)
16 Texas Southern (SWAC) vs. Robet Morris (NEC) Hampton (MEAC) vs. Lafayette (Patriot) Coastal Carolina (Big South) Manhattan (MAAC)
8 Dayton Ohio State St. John's Xavier
9 Cincinnati Davidson Iowa Georgia

1st 2 Rounds Seattle Jacksonville Columbus Portland
5 Utah West Virginia Wichita State SMU (American)
12 Stephen F Austin (Southland) Valparaiso (Horizon) Buffalo (MAC) Wyoming (MWC)
4 Louisville North Carolina Oklahoma Northern Iowa (MVC)
13 Eastern Washington (Big Sky) Wofford (Southern) Harvard (Ivy) Georgia State (Sunbelt)

1st 2 Rounds Columbus Louisville Pittsburgh Jacksonville
3 Notre Dame (ACC) Iowa State (Iowa State) Maryland Baylor
14 New Mexico State (WAC) UC-Irvine (Big West) Northeastern (Colonial) UAB (C-USA)
6 Michigan State Butler Georgetown Arkansas
11 Temple/LSU Boise State/Indiana Texas BYU

1st 2 Rounds Seattle Charlotte Omaha Portland
7 Providence VCU (A-10) Oregon San Diego State
10 Oklahoma State Purdue Colorado State NC State
2 Gonzaga (WCC) Virginia Kansas Arizona (Pac 10)
15 Albany (American East) Belmont (OVC) North Dakota State (Summit) North Florida (Atlantic Sun)

Friday, March 13, 2015

2015 Bracket Projection 3/12

I am still alive, but working a different job than last year than hasn't allowed me to watch as much college basketball this season. I came up with this bracket late last night after all the games for the day were over. So this is representative of my projections for the games through Thursday, March 12.

Kentucky is the #1 seed and the odds on favorite to win it all. The Big 12 has a handful of teams (Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor, Iowa State, West Virginia) that are all good, but are any final four caliber? The ACC has it's own quintet of teams (Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, UNC) that are roughly the same caliber, but more dispersed in the projected seedings. The Big Ten is poised to be much maligned this year as they have many teams that are among the top 50 teams (at-large cut-off) in the country and will probably get the most teams of any conference in the tournament, but only Wisconsin and Maryland (who I don't quite believe in for some reason) expected to survive the first weekend.

I think Virginia has a #1 seed locked up as well. If Villanova wins the Big East, it appears they do as well. I see Duke as the fourth #1 seed right now. Do they stay a #1 if they lose to Virginia in the ACC Championship. I don't know. If they lose to Notre Dame tonight? Less likely. Wisconsin looks to be next in line, assuming they win the Big 10 tournament. With geographical considerations, they will likely end up in the same region as Kentucky if they are not a #1 seed. Arizona is next in line, followed by Kansas or maybe another Big 12 team.

The bubble shrunk yesterday quite a lot.

From mid-major conferences, Murray State and Iona were already sitting at the bottom of it hoping for a miracle. Old Dominion now joins them. Illinois and Texas A&M suffered losses that will likely doom them to the NIT tournament.

BYU is an interesting team based on their resume and that the regular season finished for them last weekend. They lost a bunch of close games, but got their signature win when they won at Gonzaga. I think they have done enough to get in the tournament and are basically safe at this point, but are firmly in bubble territory and possibly headed for the first four game.

On the right side of the bubble, I think Oklahoma State and NC State have done enough to get in, despite losses yesterday. Colorado State and Boise State basically just have to maintain and not lose to anyone besides San Diego State in the MWC tournament.

Purdue (versus Penn State) and LSU (versus Auburn) just need to avoid bad losses today, as they can afford losses to Wisconsin and Kentucky, respectively tomorrow.

Texas and Mississippi have been in a free-fall the last few weeks, which is never a good sign. Despite losses on Thursday, I think they are both still in. I think Texas is ahead of Ole Miss and I think both are likely to end up in play-in games. Miami-Fl is in the same situation, but I think they are landing on the wrong side of the bubble right now.

Indiana might be safe now, but a win over Maryland will make them a lock. UCLA is likely not in right now, but a win over Arizona would vault them barely into the tournament.

The American tournament is suddenly getting very interesting. SMU is going to be in. Cincinnati will as well, although many bracketologists don't seem to be 100% confident on them quite yet. Connecticut and Memphis have no shot at an at-large, but are both capable of making runs for the auto-bid. Temple and Tulsa are both very bubblicious right now. I have Temple in and Tulsa out. I still don't know how Tulsa lost to Southeast Oklahoma State back in December, but it is a huge blemish on their resume. Temple has a slightly better resume because of this, but Tulsa swept them on the season. Both were swept by SMU and lost to Cincinnati. They both need to do work to make the tournament. I'm anticipating the situation to have one other team from the American join SMU and Cincinnati, but that is far from a certainty.

The only other team I haven't talked about that has a shot at an at-large bid would be Richmond. They need to do a lot of work and probably need to reach the A-10 final (which would include beating tournament teams in VCU and Davidson). If Dayton is their final opponent, they can feel safer then. Otherwise, there would be a bid-stealer situation occurring that would take a spot away from the bubble.

Here is the bracket I came up with last night:

Regional Cleveland Syracuse Houston Los Angeles
1st 2 Rounds Louisville Charlotte Pittsburgh Charlotte
1 Kentucky (SEC) Virginia (ACC) Villanova (Big East) Duke
16 Texas Southern (SWAC) vs. North Florida (Atlantic Sun) Robert Morris (NEC) vs. Lafayette (Patriot) Manhattan (MAAC) Coastal Carolina (Big South)
8 Ohio State Oregon Iowa Cincinnati
9 Dayton Davidson (Atlantic 10) Xavier Georgia

1st 2 Rounds Jacksonville Seattle Columbus Portland
5 North Carolina Georgetown Utah West Virginia
12 Louisiana Tech (C-USA) Buffalo (MAC) Indiana-Texas Stephen F Austin (Southland)
4 Baylor Northern Iowa (MVC) Louisville Wichita State
13 Wofford (Southern) Yale (Ivy) Valparaiso (Horizon) UCSB (Big West)

1st 2 Rounds Columbus Pittsburgh Jacksonville Louisville
3 Notre Dame Maryland Oklahoma Iowa State
14 Northeastern (Colonial) NC Central (MEAC) Georgia State (Sunbelt) North Dakota State (Summit)
6 Butler Arkansas Providence Michigan State
11 Boise State Temple LSU BYU-Mississippi

1st 2 Rounds Omaha Omaha Seattle Portland
7 SMU (American) VCU San Diego State (MWC) St. John's
10 Oklahoma State NC State Purdue Colorado State
2 Wisconsin (Big Ten) Kansas (Big 12) Gonzaga (WCC) Arizona (Pac 10)
15 Belmont (OVC) Stony Brook (American East) Eastern Washington (Big Sky) New Mexico State (WAC)

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Final 2014 NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection

With only two final games being played right now, the field is pretty well set for the tournament. Kentucky, Florida, Michigan and Michigan State are all very safely in. The Gators are safe in getting a #1 seed, and probably the #1 overall seed. Kentucky is currently losing, but they will probably find themselves somewhere around a 6 or 7 seed and a dangerous one at that. My thinking was that Michigan would get a #1 seed by beating Michigan State today. On the other hand, Michigan has already beat MSU twice this year. Does one more win or a loss to them make a big difference to where they should be seeded?

Villanova has only lost four games this year. However, three of them were to Creighton and Syracuse. The last one was to Seton Hall. There only top 25 win over Kansas somewhat cancels out the Seton Hall loss, but they really don't look like a top 10 team to me.

Virginia won the ACC regular season and conference tournament title. They are far from a lock as a #1 seed, but I think their achievements thus far warrant them receiving the final #1 seed, especially as Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Duke, Kansas and Syracuse all failed to win their conference tournaments.

Florida SEC 1
Wichita State Missouri Valley 1
Virginia ACC 1
Louisville AAC 3
Iowa State Big 12 4
Michigan State Big 10 4
UCLA Pac 12 4
San Diego State
Ohio State
North Carolina
New Mexico Mountain West 6
Saint Louis
Gonzaga West Coast 7
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
George Washington
Providence Big East 10
St. Joseph's Atlantic 10 10
Arizona State
Southern Methodist
Harvard Ivy 12
North Dakota State Summit 12
Tulsa Conference USA 12
Stephen F Austin Southland 13
Manhattan MAAC 13
New Mexico State WAC 13
Western Michigan MAC 13
Delaware Colonial 14
North Carolina Central Mid-Eastern 14
Mercer Atlantic Sun 14
Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 14
American Patriot 15
Louisiana-Lafayette Sunbelt 15
Wisc.-Milwaukee Horizon 15
Wofford Southern 15
Weber State Big Sky 16
Albany American East 16
Mount St. Mary's Northeast 16
Coastal Carolina Big South 16
Cal Poly Big West 16
Texas Southern SWAC 16

And here's the final bracket projection:

Regional Memphis Indianapolis Anaheim New York City
1st 2 Rounds Orlando St. Louis San Diego Raleigh
1 Florida (SEC) Wichita State (MVC) Arizona Virginia (ACC)
16 Coastal Carolina (Big South)/Cal Poly (Big West) Mount St. Mary's (NEAC)/Texas Southern (SWAC) Weber State (Big Sky) Albany (American East)
8 Massachusetts Oklahoma State Memphis Oregon
9 Colorado Pittsburgh Kansas State George Washington

1st 2 Rounds San Antonio San Diego Spokane Spokane
4 Iowa State (Big 12) UCLA (Pac 12) Michigan State Cincinnati
13 Stephen F. Austin (Southland) New Mexico State (WAC) Manhatten (MAAC) Western Michigan (MAC)
5 Ohio State Connecticut San Diego State Oklahoma
12 Tulsa (C-USA) Harvard (Ivy) BYU/Dayton North Dakota St. (Summit)

1st 2 Rounds Orlando Milwaukee Buffalo San Antonio
3 Louisville Wisconsin Syracuse Creighton
14 Mercer (Atlantic Sun) North Carolina Central (MEAC) Delaware (Colonial) Eastern Kentucky (OVC)
6 New Mexico (MWC) North Carolina VCU Baylor
11 Nebraska/Xavier Southern Methodist Tennessee Arizona State

1st 2 Rounds Raleigh Buffalo St. Louis Milwaukee
2 Duke Villanova Kansas Michigan
15 American (Patriot) Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon) Louisiana-Lafayette (Sunbelt) Wofford (Southern)
7 Texas Kentucky Gonzaga (WCC) Saint Louis
10 Iowa Stanford Providence (Big East) St. Joseph's (A-10)

Friday, March 14, 2014

I can't believe its only two days until Selection Sunday! The field is quickly shaping up. This bracket was assembled with the games through Thursday, but I was using some information that was only updated through Wednesday. Then I made a couple changes today before I posted this.

The Saint Joseph's-Dayton game was interesting because it was very close and both teams were barely in going into the game. I think St. Joe's was slightly ahead of Dayton going in and they barely won. I am dropping Dayton to the first team out and making St. Joe's "safe." I'm still debating on whether Dayton should be in as well.

I think BYU, Xavier, Nebraska and Tennessee have now done enough to make the field. This leaves us with two real bubble spots. However, the teams nearest the bubble have all lost (Dayton, California, Florida State, Arkansas, Wisconsin-Green Bay, St. John's and Utah). I have Providence and Minnesota in for now. Providence should get another win this evening against Seton Hall. Minnesota has a big opportunity tonight against Wisconsin to enhance their resume.

As for the top seeds, I think Florida is ahead of Arizona. Wichita State is somewhere in the top 3, probably either the #1 overall seed or the third #1 seed behind Florida and Arizona. It's hard to say where they belong. I'm going with Villanova as the 4th #1 seed, even with their surprising loss. Their other losses are all to Creighton and Syracuse. Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Duke, Virginia and Syracuse are all in consideration if they win their conference tournament, but I'm probably sticking with  the same four that I have now.

1 Florida SEC
1 Arizona Pac 12
1 Wichita State Missouri Valley
1 Villanova Big East
2 Kansas Big 12
2 Virginia ACC
2 Wisconsin Big 10
2 Michigan
3 Syracuse
3 Duke
3 Creighton
3 Louisville American
4 Cincinnati
4 Michigan State
4 San Diego State Mountain West
4 Iowa State
5 North Carolina
5 Saint Louis
5 Oklahoma
6 Ohio State
6 Texas
6 Connecticut
6 Massachusetts
7 New Mexico
7 Gonzaga West Coast
7 Kentucky
8 Baylor
8 Oregon
8 George Washington Atlantic 10
8 Oklahoma State
9 Colorado
9 Kansas State
9 Memphis
9 Arizona State
10 Iowa
10 Southern Methodist
10 Stanford
10 Nebraska
11 Pittsburgh
11 Xavier
11 BYU
11 St. Joseph's or Dayton
11 Tennessee
12 Minnesota
12 Providence
12 Harvard Ivy
12 Southern Miss. Conference USA
12 Stephen F Austin Southland
13 Toledo MAC
13 North Dakota State Summit
13 Wisc.-Milwaukee Horizon
13 Manhattan MAAC
14 UC Irvine Big West
14 Delaware Colonial
14 Georgia State Sunbelt
14 New Mexico State WAC
15 Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley
15 Mercer Atlantic Sun
15 North Carolina Central Mid-Eastern
15 American Patriot
16 Stony Brook American East
16 Wofford Southern
16 Mount St. Mary's Northeast
16 Weber State Big Sky
16 Coastal Carolina Big South
16 Alabama State SWAC

Below is my bracket, hopefully it is readable. I had to adjust a few seeds to avoid conference match-ups early on. I also moved BYU to get them to a spot where they would not have the potential to play on a Sunday. Unfortunately, I just noticed they are in the same bracket as Gonzaga, so I'll be making additional changes as this bracket wouldn't work.

Regional Memphis Anaheim Indianapolis New York City
1st 2 Rounds Orlando San Diego St. Louis Buffalo
1 Florida (SEC) Arizona (PAC 12) Wichita State (MVC) Villanova
16 Texas Southern (SWAC)/Coastal Carolina (Big South) Weber State (Big Sky) Stony Brook (American East) Mount St. Mary's (NEAC)/Wofford (Southern)
8 George Washington (Atlantic 10) Gonzaga (WCC) Oklahoma State Oregon
9 Iowa Memphis Colorado Kansas State

1st 2 Rounds San Diego Spokane San Antonio Spokane
5 UCLA Oklahoma North Carolina Saint Louis
12 Southern Miss (Conference USA) BYU Stephen F Austin (Southland) Harvard (Ivy)
4 Iowa State San Diego State (MWC) Cincinnati Michigan State
13 Manhattan (MAAC) North Dakota State (Summit) Toledo (MAC) Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon)

1st 2 Rounds Raleigh San Antonio Buffalo Orlando
3 Duke Creighton (AAC) Syracuse Louisville (Big East)
14 New Mexico State (WAC) UC Irvine (Big West) Delaware (Colonial) Georgia State (Sunbelt)
6 Ohio State Texas Connecticut Massachusetts
11 St. Joseph's/Providence Pittsburgh Xavier Minnesota/Tennessee

1st 2 Rounds St. Louis Milwaukee Milwaukee Raleigh
7 New Mexico VCU Kentucky Baylor
10 SMU Arizona State Stanford Nebraska
2 Kansas (Big 12) Michigan Wisconsin (Big Ten) Virginia (ACC)
15 American (Patriot) Mercer (Atlantic Sun) Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley) North Carolina Central (MEAC)

Saturday, March 8, 2014

Finally an update!

My apologies to anyone that reads this each year leading up to March Madness. The last year has been absolutely awful for me personally and I just haven't been motivated to find the time to update. Last night, I finally went through and made my first list of teams that should be in the field.

You hear about the last 4 in normally, but in this case, it's the last 5 in. Those are Georgetown, Minnesota, Arkansas, Nebraska and Stanford. The first 5 out are Providence, California, Dayton, Tennessee, and Florida State. The others still under consideration are Utah, Marquette, St. John's, Missouri and LSU.

Arizona, Wichita State and Florida seem pretty solid for #1 seeds in some order. If Virginia wins the ACC tournament, I think I would give them the final number one seed over Villanova.

1 Arizona Pac 12
1 Wichita State Missouri Valley
1 Florida SEC
1 Villanova Big East
2 Kansas Big 12
2 Virginia ACC
2 Wisconsin Big 10
2 Michigan
3 Syracuse
3 Duke
3 Creighton
3 Louisville American
4 Cincinnati
4 Michigan State
4 San Diego State Mountain West
4 Iowa State
5 North Carolina
5 Saint Louis Atlantic 10
5 Oklahoma
6 New Mexico
6 Massachusetts
6 Oklahoma State
6 Ohio State
7 Texas
7 Connecticut
7 Gonzaga West Coast
8 Iowa
8 Kentucky
8 Arizona State
8 Southern Methodist
9 George Washington
9 Kansas State
9 Baylor
9 Colorado
10 Oregon
10 Pittsburgh
10 Memphis
10 BYU
11 St. Joseph's
11 Xavier
11 Stanford
11 Harvard Ivy
12 Nebraska
12 Arkansas
12 Minnesota
12 Georgetown
12 Green Bay Horizon
12 Stephen F Austin Southland
13 Southern Miss. Conference USA
13 Toledo MAC
13 North Dakota State Sunbelt
13 Manhattan MAAC
14 UC Santa Barbara Big West
14 Delaware Colonial
14 Belmont Ohio Valley
14 Georgia State Sunbelt
15 Davidson Southern
15 New Mexico State WAC
15 Mercer Atlantic Sun
15 Boston University Patriot
16 North Carolina Central Mid-Eastern
16 Vermont American East
16 Robert Morris Northeast
16 Montana Big Sky
16 VMI Big South
16 Alabama State SWAC

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Final Bracket

Unfortunately, I am running low on time this evening and won't be able to make another post. This isn't really an S-curve, though it started out as one. approximately and mostly updated. It is also based on an Ohio State win over Wisconsin. If the Badgers win, I'd move them up to a 3 and Kansas State down. I would also probably switch Michigan State and Ohio State. It's close enough that it's my official final bracket seedings:

1 Gonzaga
1 Indiana
1 Louisville
1 Kansas
2 Duke
2 Miami-FL
2 Georgetown
2 Ohio State
3 Florida
3 Michigan State
3 Kansas State
3 New Mexico
4 Wisconsin
4 Marquette
4 Michigan
4 Saint Louis
5 Syracuse
5 Oklahoma State
5 Arizona
6 Pittsburgh
6 North Carolina
6 Notre Dame
7 Creighton
7 Colorado State
7 Illinois
8 San Diego State
8 Oregon
8 Memphis
8 Butler
9 Missouri
9 Cincinnati
9 NC State
9 Minnesota
10 Villanova
10 Colorado
10 St. Mary's
10 Wichita State
11 Temple
11 Mississippi
11 Iowa State
11 Boise State
12 California
12 Oklahoma
12 Middle Tennessee
12 La Salle
12 Belmont
12 Valparaiso
13 Akron
13 Davidson
13 Bucknell
13 New Mexico State
14 South Dakota State
14 Iona
14 Harvard
14 Montana
15 Northwestern State
15 Florida Gulf Coast
15 Pacific
15 LIU Brooklyn
16 Albany
16 James Madison
16 Western Kentucky
16 Southern
16 North Carolina A&T
16 Liberty

For those of you looking for a final "bracket" opposed to seedings, this is an updated bracket, but I made changes to the previous one, instead of creating from scratch, which I think would have worked better. Hopefully there are no huge errors!

Regional Los Angeles Indianapolis Washington D.C. Arlington
1st 2 Rounds Salt Lake City Dayton Lexington Kansas City
1 Gonzaga (WCC) Indiana Louisville (Big East) Kansas (Big 12)
16 Albany (American East) Western Kentucky (Sunbelt) v Liberty (Big South) James Madison (Colonial) North Carolina A&T (MEAC) v Southern (SWAC)
8 San Diego State Oregon (Pac 12) Butler Memphis (C-USA)
9 Cincinnati Missouri Saint Mary's NC State

1st 2 Rounds San Jose San Jose Auburn Hills Salt Lake City
4 Michigan Saint Louis (A-10) Wisconsin Marquette
13 New Mexico St. (WAC) Bucknell (Patriot) Valparaiso (Horizon) Davidson (Southern)
5 Oklahoma State Syracuse Arizona UCLA
12 Mississippi (SEC) Akron (MAC) Wichita State Belmont (OVC)

1st 2 Rounds Austin Kansas City Auburn Hills Austin
3 New Mexico (MWC) Kansas State Michigan State Florida
14 Harvard (Ivy) S. Dakota St. (Summit) Iona (MAAC) Pacific (Big West)
6 Notre Dame North Carolina Pittsburgh UNLV
11 La Salle v Middle Tennessee Boise State v Temple California Iowa State

1st 2 Rounds Dayton Philadelphia Philadelphia Lexington
2 Ohio State (Big 10) Georgetown Duke Miami-FL (ACC)
15 Northwestern State (Southland) LIU-Brooklyn (NEAC) Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun) Montana (Big Sky)
7 Creighton (MVC) Illinois Colorado State VCU
10 Colorado Villanova Oklahoma Minnesota