Sunday, March 16, 2014

Final 2014 NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection

With only two final games being played right now, the field is pretty well set for the tournament. Kentucky, Florida, Michigan and Michigan State are all very safely in. The Gators are safe in getting a #1 seed, and probably the #1 overall seed. Kentucky is currently losing, but they will probably find themselves somewhere around a 6 or 7 seed and a dangerous one at that. My thinking was that Michigan would get a #1 seed by beating Michigan State today. On the other hand, Michigan has already beat MSU twice this year. Does one more win or a loss to them make a big difference to where they should be seeded?

Villanova has only lost four games this year. However, three of them were to Creighton and Syracuse. The last one was to Seton Hall. There only top 25 win over Kansas somewhat cancels out the Seton Hall loss, but they really don't look like a top 10 team to me.

Virginia won the ACC regular season and conference tournament title. They are far from a lock as a #1 seed, but I think their achievements thus far warrant them receiving the final #1 seed, especially as Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Duke, Kansas and Syracuse all failed to win their conference tournaments.


Florida SEC 1
Wichita State Missouri Valley 1
Arizona
1
Virginia ACC 1
Villanova
2
Michigan
2
Duke
2
Kansas
2
Louisville AAC 3
Wisconsin
3
Syracuse
3
Creighton
3
Iowa State Big 12 4
Michigan State Big 10 4
UCLA Pac 12 4
Cincinnati
4
Connecticut
5
San Diego State
5
Ohio State
5
Oklahoma
5
North Carolina
6
Baylor
6
VCU
6
New Mexico Mountain West 6
Texas
7
Kentucky
7
Saint Louis
7
Gonzaga West Coast 7
Oklahoma State
8
Oregon
8
Massachusetts
8
Memphis
8
Kansas State
9
Colorado
9
George Washington
9
Pittsburgh
9
Stanford
10
Providence Big East 10
Iowa
10
St. Joseph's Atlantic 10 10
Arizona State
11
Tennessee
11
Southern Methodist
11
Nebraska
11
Xavier
11
BYU
12
Dayton
12
Harvard Ivy 12
North Dakota State Summit 12
Tulsa Conference USA 12
Stephen F Austin Southland 13
Manhattan MAAC 13
New Mexico State WAC 13
Western Michigan MAC 13
Delaware Colonial 14
North Carolina Central Mid-Eastern 14
Mercer Atlantic Sun 14
Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 14
American Patriot 15
Louisiana-Lafayette Sunbelt 15
Wisc.-Milwaukee Horizon 15
Wofford Southern 15
Weber State Big Sky 16
Albany American East 16
Mount St. Mary's Northeast 16
Coastal Carolina Big South 16
Cal Poly Big West 16
Texas Southern SWAC 16

And here's the final bracket projection:


Regional Memphis Indianapolis Anaheim New York City
1st 2 Rounds Orlando St. Louis San Diego Raleigh
1 Florida (SEC) Wichita State (MVC) Arizona Virginia (ACC)
16 Coastal Carolina (Big South)/Cal Poly (Big West) Mount St. Mary's (NEAC)/Texas Southern (SWAC) Weber State (Big Sky) Albany (American East)
8 Massachusetts Oklahoma State Memphis Oregon
9 Colorado Pittsburgh Kansas State George Washington





1st 2 Rounds San Antonio San Diego Spokane Spokane
4 Iowa State (Big 12) UCLA (Pac 12) Michigan State Cincinnati
13 Stephen F. Austin (Southland) New Mexico State (WAC) Manhatten (MAAC) Western Michigan (MAC)
5 Ohio State Connecticut San Diego State Oklahoma
12 Tulsa (C-USA) Harvard (Ivy) BYU/Dayton North Dakota St. (Summit)





1st 2 Rounds Orlando Milwaukee Buffalo San Antonio
3 Louisville Wisconsin Syracuse Creighton
14 Mercer (Atlantic Sun) North Carolina Central (MEAC) Delaware (Colonial) Eastern Kentucky (OVC)
6 New Mexico (MWC) North Carolina VCU Baylor
11 Nebraska/Xavier Southern Methodist Tennessee Arizona State





1st 2 Rounds Raleigh Buffalo St. Louis Milwaukee
2 Duke Villanova Kansas Michigan
15 American (Patriot) Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon) Louisiana-Lafayette (Sunbelt) Wofford (Southern)
7 Texas Kentucky Gonzaga (WCC) Saint Louis
10 Iowa Stanford Providence (Big East) St. Joseph's (A-10)

Friday, March 14, 2014

I can't believe its only two days until Selection Sunday! The field is quickly shaping up. This bracket was assembled with the games through Thursday, but I was using some information that was only updated through Wednesday. Then I made a couple changes today before I posted this.

The Saint Joseph's-Dayton game was interesting because it was very close and both teams were barely in going into the game. I think St. Joe's was slightly ahead of Dayton going in and they barely won. I am dropping Dayton to the first team out and making St. Joe's "safe." I'm still debating on whether Dayton should be in as well.

I think BYU, Xavier, Nebraska and Tennessee have now done enough to make the field. This leaves us with two real bubble spots. However, the teams nearest the bubble have all lost (Dayton, California, Florida State, Arkansas, Wisconsin-Green Bay, St. John's and Utah). I have Providence and Minnesota in for now. Providence should get another win this evening against Seton Hall. Minnesota has a big opportunity tonight against Wisconsin to enhance their resume.

As for the top seeds, I think Florida is ahead of Arizona. Wichita State is somewhere in the top 3, probably either the #1 overall seed or the third #1 seed behind Florida and Arizona. It's hard to say where they belong. I'm going with Villanova as the 4th #1 seed, even with their surprising loss. Their other losses are all to Creighton and Syracuse. Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Duke, Virginia and Syracuse are all in consideration if they win their conference tournament, but I'm probably sticking with  the same four that I have now.



1 Florida SEC
1 Arizona Pac 12
1 Wichita State Missouri Valley
1 Villanova Big East
2 Kansas Big 12
2 Virginia ACC
2 Wisconsin Big 10
2 Michigan
3 Syracuse
3 Duke
3 Creighton
3 Louisville American
4 Cincinnati
4 Michigan State
4 San Diego State Mountain West
4 Iowa State
5 North Carolina
5 Saint Louis
5 Oklahoma
5 UCLA
6 Ohio State
6 Texas
6 Connecticut
6 Massachusetts
7 VCU
7 New Mexico
7 Gonzaga West Coast
7 Kentucky
8 Baylor
8 Oregon
8 George Washington Atlantic 10
8 Oklahoma State
9 Colorado
9 Kansas State
9 Memphis
9 Arizona State
10 Iowa
10 Southern Methodist
10 Stanford
10 Nebraska
11 Pittsburgh
11 Xavier
11 BYU
11 St. Joseph's or Dayton
11 Tennessee
12 Minnesota
12 Providence
12 Harvard Ivy
12 Southern Miss. Conference USA
12 Stephen F Austin Southland
13 Toledo MAC
13 North Dakota State Summit
13 Wisc.-Milwaukee Horizon
13 Manhattan MAAC
14 UC Irvine Big West
14 Delaware Colonial
14 Georgia State Sunbelt
14 New Mexico State WAC
15 Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley
15 Mercer Atlantic Sun
15 North Carolina Central Mid-Eastern
15 American Patriot
16 Stony Brook American East
16 Wofford Southern
16 Mount St. Mary's Northeast
16 Weber State Big Sky
16 Coastal Carolina Big South
16 Alabama State SWAC


Below is my bracket, hopefully it is readable. I had to adjust a few seeds to avoid conference match-ups early on. I also moved BYU to get them to a spot where they would not have the potential to play on a Sunday. Unfortunately, I just noticed they are in the same bracket as Gonzaga, so I'll be making additional changes as this bracket wouldn't work.



Regional Memphis Anaheim Indianapolis New York City
1st 2 Rounds Orlando San Diego St. Louis Buffalo
1 Florida (SEC) Arizona (PAC 12) Wichita State (MVC) Villanova
16 Texas Southern (SWAC)/Coastal Carolina (Big South) Weber State (Big Sky) Stony Brook (American East) Mount St. Mary's (NEAC)/Wofford (Southern)
8 George Washington (Atlantic 10) Gonzaga (WCC) Oklahoma State Oregon
9 Iowa Memphis Colorado Kansas State





1st 2 Rounds San Diego Spokane San Antonio Spokane
5 UCLA Oklahoma North Carolina Saint Louis
12 Southern Miss (Conference USA) BYU Stephen F Austin (Southland) Harvard (Ivy)
4 Iowa State San Diego State (MWC) Cincinnati Michigan State
13 Manhattan (MAAC) North Dakota State (Summit) Toledo (MAC) Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon)





1st 2 Rounds Raleigh San Antonio Buffalo Orlando
3 Duke Creighton (AAC) Syracuse Louisville (Big East)
14 New Mexico State (WAC) UC Irvine (Big West) Delaware (Colonial) Georgia State (Sunbelt)
6 Ohio State Texas Connecticut Massachusetts
11 St. Joseph's/Providence Pittsburgh Xavier Minnesota/Tennessee





1st 2 Rounds St. Louis Milwaukee Milwaukee Raleigh
7 New Mexico VCU Kentucky Baylor
10 SMU Arizona State Stanford Nebraska
2 Kansas (Big 12) Michigan Wisconsin (Big Ten) Virginia (ACC)
15 American (Patriot) Mercer (Atlantic Sun) Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley) North Carolina Central (MEAC)

Saturday, March 8, 2014

Finally an update!

My apologies to anyone that reads this each year leading up to March Madness. The last year has been absolutely awful for me personally and I just haven't been motivated to find the time to update. Last night, I finally went through and made my first list of teams that should be in the field.

You hear about the last 4 in normally, but in this case, it's the last 5 in. Those are Georgetown, Minnesota, Arkansas, Nebraska and Stanford. The first 5 out are Providence, California, Dayton, Tennessee, and Florida State. The others still under consideration are Utah, Marquette, St. John's, Missouri and LSU.

Arizona, Wichita State and Florida seem pretty solid for #1 seeds in some order. If Virginia wins the ACC tournament, I think I would give them the final number one seed over Villanova.




1 Arizona Pac 12
1 Wichita State Missouri Valley
1 Florida SEC
1 Villanova Big East
2 Kansas Big 12
2 Virginia ACC
2 Wisconsin Big 10
2 Michigan
3 Syracuse
3 Duke
3 Creighton
3 Louisville American
4 Cincinnati
4 Michigan State
4 San Diego State Mountain West
4 Iowa State
5 North Carolina
5 Saint Louis Atlantic 10
5 Oklahoma
5 UCLA
6 New Mexico
6 Massachusetts
6 Oklahoma State
6 Ohio State
7 Texas
7 VCU
7 Connecticut
7 Gonzaga West Coast
8 Iowa
8 Kentucky
8 Arizona State
8 Southern Methodist
9 George Washington
9 Kansas State
9 Baylor
9 Colorado
10 Oregon
10 Pittsburgh
10 Memphis
10 BYU
11 St. Joseph's
11 Xavier
11 Stanford
11 Harvard Ivy
12 Nebraska
12 Arkansas
12 Minnesota
12 Georgetown
12 Green Bay Horizon
12 Stephen F Austin Southland
13 Southern Miss. Conference USA
13 Toledo MAC
13 North Dakota State Sunbelt
13 Manhattan MAAC
14 UC Santa Barbara Big West
14 Delaware Colonial
14 Belmont Ohio Valley
14 Georgia State Sunbelt
15 Davidson Southern
15 New Mexico State WAC
15 Mercer Atlantic Sun
15 Boston University Patriot
16 North Carolina Central Mid-Eastern
16 Vermont American East
16 Robert Morris Northeast
16 Montana Big Sky
16 VMI Big South
16 Alabama State SWAC

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Final Bracket

Unfortunately, I am running low on time this evening and won't be able to make another post. This isn't really an S-curve, though it started out as one. approximately and mostly updated. It is also based on an Ohio State win over Wisconsin. If the Badgers win, I'd move them up to a 3 and Kansas State down. I would also probably switch Michigan State and Ohio State. It's close enough that it's my official final bracket seedings:

1 Gonzaga
1 Indiana
1 Louisville
1 Kansas
2 Duke
2 Miami-FL
2 Georgetown
2 Ohio State
3 Florida
3 Michigan State
3 Kansas State
3 New Mexico
4 Wisconsin
4 Marquette
4 Michigan
4 Saint Louis
5 Syracuse
5 Oklahoma State
5 UCLA
5 Arizona
6 UNLV
6 Pittsburgh
6 North Carolina
6 Notre Dame
7 Creighton
7 Colorado State
7 VCU
7 Illinois
8 San Diego State
8 Oregon
8 Memphis
8 Butler
9 Missouri
9 Cincinnati
9 NC State
9 Minnesota
10 Villanova
10 Colorado
10 St. Mary's
10 Wichita State
11 Temple
11 Mississippi
11 Iowa State
11 Boise State
12 California
12 Oklahoma
12 Middle Tennessee
12 La Salle
12 Belmont
12 Valparaiso
13 Akron
13 Davidson
13 Bucknell
13 New Mexico State
14 South Dakota State
14 Iona
14 Harvard
14 Montana
15 Northwestern State
15 Florida Gulf Coast
15 Pacific
15 LIU Brooklyn
16 Albany
16 James Madison
16 Western Kentucky
16 Southern
16 North Carolina A&T
16 Liberty


For those of you looking for a final "bracket" opposed to seedings, this is an updated bracket, but I made changes to the previous one, instead of creating from scratch, which I think would have worked better. Hopefully there are no huge errors!

Regional Los Angeles Indianapolis Washington D.C. Arlington
1st 2 Rounds Salt Lake City Dayton Lexington Kansas City
1 Gonzaga (WCC) Indiana Louisville (Big East) Kansas (Big 12)
16 Albany (American East) Western Kentucky (Sunbelt) v Liberty (Big South) James Madison (Colonial) North Carolina A&T (MEAC) v Southern (SWAC)
8 San Diego State Oregon (Pac 12) Butler Memphis (C-USA)
9 Cincinnati Missouri Saint Mary's NC State





1st 2 Rounds San Jose San Jose Auburn Hills Salt Lake City
4 Michigan Saint Louis (A-10) Wisconsin Marquette
13 New Mexico St. (WAC) Bucknell (Patriot) Valparaiso (Horizon) Davidson (Southern)
5 Oklahoma State Syracuse Arizona UCLA
12 Mississippi (SEC) Akron (MAC) Wichita State Belmont (OVC)





1st 2 Rounds Austin Kansas City Auburn Hills Austin
3 New Mexico (MWC) Kansas State Michigan State Florida
14 Harvard (Ivy) S. Dakota St. (Summit) Iona (MAAC) Pacific (Big West)
6 Notre Dame North Carolina Pittsburgh UNLV
11 La Salle v Middle Tennessee Boise State v Temple California Iowa State





1st 2 Rounds Dayton Philadelphia Philadelphia Lexington
2 Ohio State (Big 10) Georgetown Duke Miami-FL (ACC)
15 Northwestern State (Southland) LIU-Brooklyn (NEAC) Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun) Montana (Big Sky)
7 Creighton (MVC) Illinois Colorado State VCU
10 Colorado Villanova Oklahoma Minnesota

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Bracket thru mid-day Saturday 3/16


Regional Los Angeles Indianapolis Washington D.C. Arlington
1st 2 Rounds San Jose Dayton Lexington Kansas City
1 Gonzaga (WCC) Indiana Louisville (Big East) Kansas (Big 12)
16 Albany (American East) Western Kentucky (Sunbelt) v Liberty (Big South) James Madison (Colonial) North Carolina A&T (MEAC) v Southern (SWAC)
8 San Diego State Missouri VCU Memphis (C-USA)
9 Cincinnati Oregon Saint Mary's Butler





1st 2 Rounds Salt Lake City San Jose Auburn Hills Salt Lake City
4 Michigan Saint Louis (A-10) Wisconsin Marquette
13 New Mexico St. (WAC) Bucknell (Patriot) Valparaiso (Horizon) Davidson (Southern)
5 Oklahoma State Syracuse Arizona UCLA (Pac-12)
12 Temple Akron (MAC) Wichita State Belmont (OVC)





1st 2 Rounds Austin Kansas City Auburn Hills Austin
3 New Mexico (MWC) Kansas State Michigan State Florida (SEC)
14 Harvard (Ivy) S. Dakota St. (Summit) Iona (MAAC) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
6 Notre Dame North Carolina Pittsburgh UNLV
11 La Salle v Mississippi Boise State v Middle Tenn California Iowa State





1st 2 Rounds Dayton Philadelphia Philadelphia Lexington
2 Ohio State (Big 10) Georgetown Duke Miami-FL (ACC)
15 Pacific (Big West) LIU-Brooklyn (NEAC) Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun) Weber State (Big Sky)
7 NC State Illinois Colorado State Creighton (MVC)
10 Colorado Villanova Oklahoma Minnesota



We are quickly closing in on selection sunday. The last five spots in the field currently belong to Temple, Boise State, Middle Tennessee, La Salle and Mississippi in my latest projection. Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee and Iowa are the first five out. Massachusetts and Maryland came up short today and are probably done now as well.

The biggest games today, bubble-wise, were in the SEC. Alabama lost to Florida and Mississippi hung on against Vanderbilt.  Vanderbilt was not the big win that Mississippi needed to get into the field, but I think they stand on top of the heap of SEC bubble teams now anyway. Tennessee and Kentucky (the top bubble contenders in the SEC) are in very big trouble now. Mississippi might have been able to get away with a loss if they were playing Florida, but not against Vandy. 

Mississippi swept Tennessee this year, but lost to Kentucky, Florida and Middle Tennessee in their only meetings. Beating Missouri two out of three times gave Mississippi their only two top 50 wins. The Rebels also beat Alabama and Arkansas for their other top 100 wins. They have 7 top 100 wins for 8 total losses. 

All 11 of Tennessee's losses have been to top 150 teams (okay, that's not saying much as a "bad loss" is a loss to a 100+ team). They have 9 top 100 wins for for their 11 total losses (4-4 vs top 50, 9-9 vs top 100, 11-11 vs top 150). They were swept by Mississippi, lost two of three to Alabama and were beat by fellow bubble team Virginia. Similarly, Kentucky has 7 top 100 wins against 10 total losses.

Alabama has 12 total losses now. They have 7 top 100 wins. 

Virginia has 10 losses overall. They are 8-3 versus the top 100 (2-2 vs top 25, 4-2 against the top 50). They have better wins than the other bubble teams, but the bad losses really kill the profile. 

Iowa is 0-6 against the top 25. They clearly aren't competing on that level. However, they are 4-3 against 26-50. That's better than most of the other bubble teams. I'd argue they are one of the top 48 teams (cut off before rest of field is filled with automatic bids). That being said, they aren't making the tournament. 

Overall, the bubble is pretty tight. An emphasis is put on scheduling for the non-conference as the teams control that part of the schedule strength. Of teams anywhere close to the bubble, here is the order of non-conference SOS based on Ken Pomeroy's rankings: Northern Iowa, Middle Tennessee, Colorado, Butler, Stanford, Bucknell, Denver, Xavier, Minnesota, California, Southern Miss, Oklahoma, San Diego State, Temple, Tennessee, Baylor, Massachusetts, Akron, Wichita State, Alabama, Illinois, BYU, Villanova, Washington, Kentucky, La Salle, Boise State, Saint Mary's (also the overall median data point), Missouri, Iowa State, Air Force, Arkansas, Louisiana Tech, Providence, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Charlotte, LSU, Oregon, Virginia, Mississippi, Iowa, Arizona State, Maryland. 

This is the main reason why I think Middle Tennessee is in the field over other core bubble contenders Virginia and Mississippi, as well as fringe candidates Iowa, Arizona State and Maryland. These five were all in the bottom 21 of the all 347 division 1 teams. The next highest bubble teams that are among the last 8 in/out are California, Southern Miss and Oklahoma. They are 90th, 100th and 101st in NCSOS, which isn't bad, but its not good enough to be a "positive" factor either. 

The last four in right now (and in the play-in game) are Boise State, Middle Tennessee State, La Salle and Mississippi. I don't feel comfortable with Mississippi right now, but I don't feel comfortable without them in the field either. The four games tomorrow do not contain any potential bid stealers, besides Mississippi. If Florida was to blow them out, does Tennessee or Kentucky leap frog them back in? Virginia? I don't see Iowa, Baylor or Southern Miss surpassing them. Besides, if the the final spot doesn't go to an SEC team, only two will make the tournament. I know the selection committee doesn't look at this, but with the large glut of bubble teams from the conference, it seems like they will get at least one of the last bubble spots.

As for the #1 seeds, once again, it feels like there are five teams for four slots: Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville, Kansas and Duke. Indiana is ahead of Duke and their seasons are both over, so the Hoosiers are a lock for the top seed. I think Gonzaga is a lock for a top seed as well, which means they will be in the western Los Angeles region. Kansas just finished off Kansas State in the Big 12 final. I think that makes them a lock for a top seed as well. They will go to the south region in Arlington. Going in to today, I've got Louisville slotted in fourth right now. if they win the Big East crown, they move up possibly to the #1 overall seed. If they lose, I may let them drop to a #2 seed. I really don't like this spread as their seed is based on a season's worth of accomplishments and to basically move them four spots based on one game. If Louisville loses tonight, it becomes easy with Duke the top seed in the East and Indiana in the Midwest. However, if the Cardinals win, do they surpass Indiana? I would assume this would put Louisville in Indianapolis and ship Indiana to Washington D.C. However, the selection committee may decide the teams are pretty equal and shorten their travel slightly. I'm leaning toward the later.  Interestingly, if Louisville does lose tonight, they will likely be the #2 seed in the midwest and play in Indianapolis anyway. 



Sunday, March 10, 2013

End of the Regular Season Bracket

Last weekend and earlier this week, bubble teams kept losing and I kept looking downward for teams on the fringe of the bubble that were winning as potential teams to sneak in and grab some at-large bids. This weekend was different. Bubble teams kept winning. In working through the bracket, I was left with a fair large pool of teams left for the bubble.

I'm writing this paragraph last as after I wrote the following, I'm trying to act like Dick Vitale and say everyone deserves to be in. Obviously, that's not true, but as I started mentally locking teams into the field, I realized that I don't have enough room especially if there are any more bid-stealers.

I think Butler and Saint Mary's are safely in the field, though likely double digit seeds. A loss by either team at this point won't knock them out of my tournament bracket barring a bunch of bid-stealers, so they are safely in. Minnesota and Oklahoma have both faded badly down the stretch. Both are still in, but the warning lights are on. No more bad losses. Villanova has been playing better toward the end of the season. La Salle, Boise State and Temple are in the second tier of teams in their respective conferences. They've all got some good wins and some so-so losses. They also all need to keep doing some work. A win over a "better" team is probably enough to get them in. Iowa State has only one, maybe 2 bad losses- @ Texas Tech and @Texas. They have home wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma State to offset those. Other than that, their profile is basically boring. However, they play Oklahoma in the first round of the Big 12 tournament. The winner is safely in the field. The loser will be on the bubble, although I do think both will ultimately make it. I think Cincinnati is safely in the field based on their non-conference success against some decent competition (wins over Oregon, Alabama, Iowa State, Xavier and a 1 point loss to New Mexico).  Middle Tennessee State is a little weak on the wins (only Mississippi, UCF?, UAB, Vanderbilt) outside of the Sunbelt. However, their only losses are to Florida, Belmont, Akron, Arkansas State and now Florida International. I think they are in as the first bid-stealer. The problem is with whose bid did they steal? It was either Virginia's or Kentucky's, two of the teams that have the most interesting profiles in the country. It basically comes down to what you are looking for in a team and which angle you go with. Virginia has more good wins, but more bad losses. Virginia played the 323rd ranked non-conference schedule and lost three games to Colonial League teams. They beat Wisconsin and Tennessee. Kentucky's losses are Duke, @Notre Dame, Baylor, @Louisville, Texas A&M, @Alabama, @Florida, @Tennessee, @Arkansas, @Georgia. None of them are that bad, except maybe the home loss to Texas A&M. Hanging your hat on a home victory over Florida--now down to around 12-15th in the rankings is possibly not enough.

I've got Kentucky as my first team out. Baylor, Tennessee, Iowa, Mississippi and Alabama are the next teams out. Denver and Southern Miss deserve a mention, but they are probably too far of a fringe contenders. The rest of the teams that have a shot at an at-large with a deep conference tournament run: Providence, Arizona State, Stanford, Washington, Arkansas, LSU, Air Force, Maryland, Massachusetts, Xavier and Charlotte.

I'd be interested to see some historical data on the lack of favorites winning the conference tournaments. It seems like their have been a lot of upsets so far to me. Favorites (and second favorites after the first one lost) that have lost include: Robert Morris, Wagner, Mercer, Middle Tennessee State, Arkansas State, South Alabama, Stony Brook, Niagara, Rider, Loyola-Maryland, Charleston Southern, High Point, UNC-Asheville, Gardner-Webb, VMI, Campbell, Radford and Coastal Carolina.

Regional Indianapolis Los Angeles Arlington Washington D.C.
1st 2 Rounds Dayton San Jose Kansas City Philadelphia
1 Indiana (Big Ten) Gonzaga (WCC) Kansas (Big 12) Duke (ACC)
16 Southern (SWAC) v Liberty (Big South) Norfolk State (MEAC) Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun) v LIU-Brooklyn (NEAC) Northeastern (Colonial)
8 San Diego State Memphis (C-USA) Colorado State Colorado
9 California Missouri Wichita State VCU





1st 2 Rounds San Jose Austin Salt Lake City Salt Lake City
5 Notre Dame Arizona (Pac-12) UCLA Syracuse
12 Akron (MAC) Cincinnati v Virginia Villanova Belmont (OVC)
4 Saint Louis (A-10) New Mexico (MWC) Michigan State Wisconsin
13 Valparaiso (Horizon) Stephen F. Austin (Southland) Denver (WAC) Bucknell (Patriot)





1st 2 Rounds Kansas City Dayton Austin Auburn Hills
3 Kansas State Ohio State Florida (SEC) Marquette
14 N. Dakota St. (Summit) Davidson (Southern) Florida International (Sunbelt) Montana (Big Sky)
6 North Carolina Pittsburgh UNLV Oklahoma State
11 Boise State Mid. Tenn. St. Iowa State v Temple La Salle





1st 2 Rounds Lexington Lexington Philadelphia Auburn Hills
7 Illinois Creighton (MVC) NC State Oregon
10 Butler Oklahoma Minnesota Saint Mary's
2 Louisville (Big East) Miami (FL) Georgetown Michigan
15 Iona (MAAC) Long Beach St. (Big West) Harvard (Ivy) Vermont (American East)