Final Bracket

Unfortunately, I am running low on time this evening and won't be able to make another post. This isn't really an S-curve, though it started out as one. approximately and mostly updated. It is also based on an Ohio State win over Wisconsin. If the Badgers win, I'd move them up to a 3 and Kansas State down. I would also probably switch Michigan State and Ohio State. It's close enough that it's my official final bracket seedings:

1	Gonzaga
1	Indiana
1	Louisville
1	Kansas
2	Duke
2	Miami-FL
2	Georgetown
2	Ohio State
3	Florida
3	Michigan State
3	Kansas State
3	New Mexico
4	Wisconsin
4	Marquette
4	Michigan
4	Saint Louis
5	Syracuse
5	Oklahoma State
5	UCLA
5	Arizona
6	UNLV
6	Pittsburgh
6	North Carolina
6	Notre Dame
7	Creighton
7	Colorado State
7	VCU
7	Illinois
8	San Diego State
8	Oregon
8	Memphis
8	Butler
9	Missouri
9	Cincinnati
9	NC State
9	Minnesota
10	Villanova
10	Colorado
10	St. Mary's
10	Wichita State
11	Temple
11	Mississippi
11	Iowa State
11	Boise State
12	California
12	Oklahoma
12	Middle Tennessee
12	La Salle
12	Belmont
12	Valparaiso
13	Akron
13	Davidson
13	Bucknell
13	New Mexico State
14	South Dakota State
14	Iona
14	Harvard
14	Montana
15	Northwestern State
15	Florida Gulf Coast
15	Pacific
15	LIU Brooklyn
16	Albany
16	James Madison
16	Western Kentucky
16	Southern
16	North Carolina A&T
16	Liberty

For those of you looking for a final "bracket" opposed to seedings, this is an updated bracket, but I made changes to the previous one, instead of creating from scratch, which I think would have worked better. Hopefully there are no huge errors!

Regional	Los Angeles	Indianapolis	Washington D.C.	Arlington
1st 2 Rounds	Salt Lake City	Dayton	Lexington	Kansas City
1	Gonzaga (WCC)	Indiana	Louisville (Big East)	Kansas (Big 12)
16	Albany (American East)	Western Kentucky (Sunbelt) v Liberty (Big South)	James Madison (Colonial)	North Carolina A&T (MEAC) v Southern (SWAC)
8	San Diego State	Oregon (Pac 12)	Butler	Memphis (C-USA)
9	Cincinnati	Missouri	Saint Mary's	NC State
1st 2 Rounds	San Jose	San Jose	Auburn Hills	Salt Lake City
4	Michigan	Saint Louis (A-10)	Wisconsin	Marquette
13	New Mexico St. (WAC)	Bucknell (Patriot)	Valparaiso (Horizon)	Davidson (Southern)
5	Oklahoma State	Syracuse	Arizona	UCLA
12	Mississippi (SEC)	Akron (MAC)	Wichita State	Belmont (OVC)
1st 2 Rounds	Austin	Kansas City	Auburn Hills	Austin
3	New Mexico (MWC)	Kansas State	Michigan State	Florida
14	Harvard (Ivy)	S. Dakota St. (Summit)	Iona (MAAC)	Pacific (Big West)
6	Notre Dame	North Carolina	Pittsburgh	UNLV
11	La Salle v Middle Tennessee	Boise State v Temple	California	Iowa State
1st 2 Rounds	Dayton	Philadelphia	Philadelphia	Lexington
2	Ohio State (Big 10)	Georgetown	Duke	Miami-FL (ACC)
15	Northwestern State (Southland)	LIU-Brooklyn (NEAC)	Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)	Montana (Big Sky)
7	Creighton (MVC)	Illinois	Colorado State	VCU
10	Colorado	Villanova	Oklahoma	Minnesota

Bracket thru mid-day Saturday 3/16

Regional	Los Angeles	Indianapolis	Washington D.C.	Arlington
1st 2 Rounds	San Jose	Dayton	Lexington	Kansas City
1	Gonzaga (WCC)	Indiana	Louisville (Big East)	Kansas (Big 12)
16	Albany (American East)	Western Kentucky (Sunbelt) v Liberty (Big South)	James Madison (Colonial)	North Carolina A&T (MEAC) v Southern (SWAC)
8	San Diego State	Missouri	VCU	Memphis (C-USA)
9	Cincinnati	Oregon	Saint Mary's	Butler
1st 2 Rounds	Salt Lake City	San Jose	Auburn Hills	Salt Lake City
4	Michigan	Saint Louis (A-10)	Wisconsin	Marquette
13	New Mexico St. (WAC)	Bucknell (Patriot)	Valparaiso (Horizon)	Davidson (Southern)
5	Oklahoma State	Syracuse	Arizona	UCLA (Pac-12)
12	Temple	Akron (MAC)	Wichita State	Belmont (OVC)
1st 2 Rounds	Austin	Kansas City	Auburn Hills	Austin
3	New Mexico (MWC)	Kansas State	Michigan State	Florida (SEC)
14	Harvard (Ivy)	S. Dakota St. (Summit)	Iona (MAAC)	Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
6	Notre Dame	North Carolina	Pittsburgh	UNLV
11	La Salle v Mississippi	Boise State v Middle Tenn	California	Iowa State
1st 2 Rounds	Dayton	Philadelphia	Philadelphia	Lexington
2	Ohio State (Big 10)	Georgetown	Duke	Miami-FL (ACC)
15	Pacific (Big West)	LIU-Brooklyn (NEAC)	Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)	Weber State (Big Sky)
7	NC State	Illinois	Colorado State	Creighton (MVC)
10	Colorado	Villanova	Oklahoma	Minnesota

We are quickly closing in on selection sunday. The last five spots in the field currently belong to Temple, Boise State, Middle Tennessee, La Salle and Mississippi in my latest projection. Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee and Iowa are the first five out. Massachusetts and Maryland came up short today and are probably done now as well.

The biggest games today, bubble-wise, were in the SEC. Alabama lost to Florida and Mississippi hung on against Vanderbilt.  Vanderbilt was not the big win that Mississippi needed to get into the field, but I think they stand on top of the heap of SEC bubble teams now anyway. Tennessee and Kentucky (the top bubble contenders in the SEC) are in very big trouble now. Mississippi might have been able to get away with a loss if they were playing Florida, but not against Vandy. 

Mississippi swept Tennessee this year, but lost to Kentucky, Florida and Middle Tennessee in their only meetings. Beating Missouri two out of three times gave Mississippi their only two top 50 wins. The Rebels also beat Alabama and Arkansas for their other top 100 wins. They have 7 top 100 wins for 8 total losses. 

All 11 of Tennessee's losses have been to top 150 teams (okay, that's not saying much as a "bad loss" is a loss to a 100+ team). They have 9 top 100 wins for for their 11 total losses (4-4 vs top 50, 9-9 vs top 100, 11-11 vs top 150). They were swept by Mississippi, lost two of three to Alabama and were beat by fellow bubble team Virginia. Similarly, Kentucky has 7 top 100 wins against 10 total losses.

Alabama has 12 total losses now. They have 7 top 100 wins. 

Virginia has 10 losses overall. They are 8-3 versus the top 100 (2-2 vs top 25, 4-2 against the top 50). They have better wins than the other bubble teams, but the bad losses really kill the profile. 

Iowa is 0-6 against the top 25. They clearly aren't competing on that level. However, they are 4-3 against 26-50. That's better than most of the other bubble teams. I'd argue they are one of the top 48 teams (cut off before rest of field is filled with automatic bids). That being said, they aren't making the tournament. 

Overall, the bubble is pretty tight. An emphasis is put on scheduling for the non-conference as the teams control that part of the schedule strength. Of teams anywhere close to the bubble, here is the order of non-conference SOS based on Ken Pomeroy's rankings: Northern Iowa, Middle Tennessee, Colorado, Butler, Stanford, Bucknell, Denver, Xavier, Minnesota, California, Southern Miss, Oklahoma, San Diego State, Temple, Tennessee, Baylor, Massachusetts, Akron, Wichita State, Alabama, Illinois, BYU, Villanova, Washington, Kentucky, La Salle, Boise State, Saint Mary's (also the overall median data point), Missouri, Iowa State, Air Force, Arkansas, Louisiana Tech, Providence, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Charlotte, LSU, Oregon, Virginia, Mississippi, Iowa, Arizona State, Maryland. 

This is the main reason why I think Middle Tennessee is in the field over other core bubble contenders Virginia and Mississippi, as well as fringe candidates Iowa, Arizona State and Maryland. These five were all in the bottom 21 of the all 347 division 1 teams. The next highest bubble teams that are among the last 8 in/out are California, Southern Miss and Oklahoma. They are 90th, 100th and 101st in NCSOS, which isn't bad, but its not good enough to be a "positive" factor either. 

The last four in right now (and in the play-in game) are Boise State, Middle Tennessee State, La Salle and Mississippi. I don't feel comfortable with Mississippi right now, but I don't feel comfortable without them in the field either. The four games tomorrow do not contain any potential bid stealers, besides Mississippi. If Florida was to blow them out, does Tennessee or Kentucky leap frog them back in? Virginia? I don't see Iowa, Baylor or Southern Miss surpassing them. Besides, if the the final spot doesn't go to an SEC team, only two will make the tournament. I know the selection committee doesn't look at this, but with the large glut of bubble teams from the conference, it seems like they will get at least one of the last bubble spots.

As for the #1 seeds, once again, it feels like there are five teams for four slots: Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville, Kansas and Duke. Indiana is ahead of Duke and their seasons are both over, so the Hoosiers are a lock for the top seed. I think Gonzaga is a lock for a top seed as well, which means they will be in the western Los Angeles region. Kansas just finished off Kansas State in the Big 12 final. I think that makes them a lock for a top seed as well. They will go to the south region in Arlington. Going in to today, I've got Louisville slotted in fourth right now. if they win the Big East crown, they move up possibly to the #1 overall seed. If they lose, I may let them drop to a #2 seed. I really don't like this spread as their seed is based on a season's worth of accomplishments and to basically move them four spots based on one game. If Louisville loses tonight, it becomes easy with Duke the top seed in the East and Indiana in the Midwest. However, if the Cardinals win, do they surpass Indiana? I would assume this would put Louisville in Indianapolis and ship Indiana to Washington D.C. However, the selection committee may decide the teams are pretty equal and shorten their travel slightly. I'm leaning toward the later.  Interestingly, if Louisville does lose tonight, they will likely be the #2 seed in the midwest and play in Indianapolis anyway. 

End of the Regular Season Bracket

Last weekend and earlier this week, bubble teams kept losing and I kept looking downward for teams on the fringe of the bubble that were winning as potential teams to sneak in and grab some at-large bids. This weekend was different. Bubble teams kept winning. In working through the bracket, I was left with a fair large pool of teams left for the bubble.

I'm writing this paragraph last as after I wrote the following, I'm trying to act like Dick Vitale and say everyone deserves to be in. Obviously, that's not true, but as I started mentally locking teams into the field, I realized that I don't have enough room especially if there are any more bid-stealers.

I think Butler and Saint Mary's are safely in the field, though likely double digit seeds. A loss by either team at this point won't knock them out of my tournament bracket barring a bunch of bid-stealers, so they are safely in. Minnesota and Oklahoma have both faded badly down the stretch. Both are still in, but the warning lights are on. No more bad losses. Villanova has been playing better toward the end of the season. La Salle, Boise State and Temple are in the second tier of teams in their respective conferences. They've all got some good wins and some so-so losses. They also all need to keep doing some work. A win over a "better" team is probably enough to get them in. Iowa State has only one, maybe 2 bad losses- @ Texas Tech and @Texas. They have home wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma State to offset those. Other than that, their profile is basically boring. However, they play Oklahoma in the first round of the Big 12 tournament. The winner is safely in the field. The loser will be on the bubble, although I do think both will ultimately make it. I think Cincinnati is safely in the field based on their non-conference success against some decent competition (wins over Oregon, Alabama, Iowa State, Xavier and a 1 point loss to New Mexico).  Middle Tennessee State is a little weak on the wins (only Mississippi, UCF?, UAB, Vanderbilt) outside of the Sunbelt. However, their only losses are to Florida, Belmont, Akron, Arkansas State and now Florida International. I think they are in as the first bid-stealer. The problem is with whose bid did they steal? It was either Virginia's or Kentucky's, two of the teams that have the most interesting profiles in the country. It basically comes down to what you are looking for in a team and which angle you go with. Virginia has more good wins, but more bad losses. Virginia played the 323rd ranked non-conference schedule and lost three games to Colonial League teams. They beat Wisconsin and Tennessee. Kentucky's losses are Duke, @Notre Dame, Baylor, @Louisville, Texas A&M, @Alabama, @Florida, @Tennessee, @Arkansas, @Georgia. None of them are that bad, except maybe the home loss to Texas A&M. Hanging your hat on a home victory over Florida--now down to around 12-15th in the rankings is possibly not enough.

I've got Kentucky as my first team out. Baylor, Tennessee, Iowa, Mississippi and Alabama are the next teams out. Denver and Southern Miss deserve a mention, but they are probably too far of a fringe contenders. The rest of the teams that have a shot at an at-large with a deep conference tournament run: Providence, Arizona State, Stanford, Washington, Arkansas, LSU, Air Force, Maryland, Massachusetts, Xavier and Charlotte.

I'd be interested to see some historical data on the lack of favorites winning the conference tournaments. It seems like their have been a lot of upsets so far to me. Favorites (and second favorites after the first one lost) that have lost include: Robert Morris, Wagner, Mercer, Middle Tennessee State, Arkansas State, South Alabama, Stony Brook, Niagara, Rider, Loyola-Maryland, Charleston Southern, High Point, UNC-Asheville, Gardner-Webb, VMI, Campbell, Radford and Coastal Carolina.

Regional	Indianapolis	Los Angeles	Arlington	Washington D.C.
1st 2 Rounds	Dayton	San Jose	Kansas City	Philadelphia
1	Indiana (Big Ten)	Gonzaga (WCC)	Kansas (Big 12)	Duke (ACC)
16	Southern (SWAC) v Liberty (Big South)	Norfolk State (MEAC)	Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun) v LIU-Brooklyn (NEAC)	Northeastern (Colonial)
8	San Diego State	Memphis (C-USA)	Colorado State	Colorado
9	California	Missouri	Wichita State	VCU
1st 2 Rounds	San Jose	Austin	Salt Lake City	Salt Lake City
5	Notre Dame	Arizona (Pac-12)	UCLA	Syracuse
12	Akron (MAC)	Cincinnati v Virginia	Villanova	Belmont (OVC)
4	Saint Louis (A-10)	New Mexico (MWC)	Michigan State	Wisconsin
13	Valparaiso (Horizon)	Stephen F. Austin (Southland)	Denver (WAC)	Bucknell (Patriot)
1st 2 Rounds	Kansas City	Dayton	Austin	Auburn Hills
3	Kansas State	Ohio State	Florida (SEC)	Marquette
14	N. Dakota St. (Summit)	Davidson (Southern)	Florida International (Sunbelt)	Montana (Big Sky)
6	North Carolina	Pittsburgh	UNLV	Oklahoma State
11	Boise State	Mid. Tenn. St.	Iowa State v Temple	La Salle
1st 2 Rounds	Lexington	Lexington	Philadelphia	Auburn Hills
7	Illinois	Creighton (MVC)	NC State	Oregon
10	Butler	Oklahoma	Minnesota	Saint Mary's
2	Louisville (Big East)	Miami (FL)	Georgetown	Michigan
15	Iona (MAAC)	Long Beach St. (Big West)	Harvard (Ivy)	Vermont (American East)

Bubble Ramblings and a new bracket

As the season closes, each game becomes just a little bit more important. This is especially true for bubble teams. On one hand you have Iowa State beating Oklahoma State and Villanova beating Georgetown to solidify bids. On the other hand you have Maryland losing at home to North Carolina (today) and Southern Miss losing to Marshall (yesterday) to solidify themselves as being out.

Yesterday also saw bubble teams Arkansas (at Missouri), Boise State (at UNLV) and Alabama (at Mississippi) take road losses that, while not surprising, dampen their tournament chances. Add Cincinnati losing at Louisville on Monday night to that list as well.

The bubble is pretty big right now still, but it is in position to shrink quickly. I've got NC State, Colorado, California, Missouri, Wichita State, Oklahoma, Virginia, La Salle, Middle Tennessee State (as an at-large, but currently the auto-bid), Butler, Iowa State, Belmont (as an at-large), Villanova and Saint Mary's in pretty solidly. They aren't falling out, unless they have one or more surprise losses. This means Saint Mary's is safe if they lose in the WCC finals to Gonzaga. I think Belmont is safe regardless, but a loss puts them squarely on the bubble and might get bumped out if there was another bid-stealer (loss to Memphis or Middle Tennessee State).

Temple, Louisiana Tech (as an at-large), Cincinnati, Boise State, Akron (as an at-large) and Kentucky are on the edge. Louisiana Tech and Akron are interesting in that they are at-large caliber now, but if they lose a game that will probably push them out. This include a conference championship final loss.

Teams that are out include Baylor (loss at Texas Monday is a killer), Mississippi (probably first team out now with win over Alabama; if they don't lose until the SEC semi-finals, I think they will be safe), Tennessee (lost Saturday at Georgia for a season sweep to a sub .500 team), Massachusetts (just won at Xavier, next up is @Butler; huge chance to play their way in), and Iowa (back in discussion, but pretty far off the bubble at this point).

Teams that have been outside looking in and lost in the past couple days include Alabama, Maryland, Southern Miss, St. John's (also lost best player to suspension) and Arkansas.

My bracket is below. I'm leaning toward Gonzaga being the #1 overall seed now. Indianapolis region will play the Arlington region, while Los Angeles region plays the D.C. region.

Regional	Indianapolis	Los Angeles	Arlington	Washington D.C.
1st 2 Rounds	Dayton	San Jose	Kansas City	Philadelphia
1	Indiana (Big Ten)	Gonzaga (WCC)	Kansas (Big 12)	Duke (ACC)
16	Southern (SWAC)-High Point (Big South)	Northeastern (Colonial)	Mercer (Atlantic Sun)	Norfolk State (MEAC)-Robert Morris (NEAC)
8	UCLA	San Diego State	Memphis (C-USA)	VCU
9	NC State	Colorado	Missouri	California
1st 2 Rounds	Salt Lake City	Kansas City	San Jose	Auburn Hills
5	Marquette	Wisconsin	UNLV	Syracuse
12	Saint Mary's	Cincinnati-Temple	Villanova	Belmont (OVC)
4	Saint Louis (A-10)	Kansas State	Oregon	Michigan State
13	Stephen F. Austin (Southland)	Louisiana Tech (WAC)	Bucknell (Patriot)	Akron (MAC)
1st 2 Rounds	Austin	Salt Lake City	Dayton	Auburn Hills
3	Miami (FL)	Arizona (Pac-12)	Ohio State	Michigan
14	So. Dakota St. (Summit)	Montana (Big Sky)	Davidson (Southern)	Valparaiso (Horizon)
6	Oklahoma State	Pittsburgh	North Carolina	Notre Dame
11	Butler	Mid. Tenn. St. (Sunbelt)	Boise State-Kentucky	Iowa State
1st 2 Rounds	Lexington	Austin	Philadelphia	Lexington
7	Illinois	Minnesota	Creighton (MVC)	Colorado State
10	Wichita State	Oklahoma	La Salle	Virginia
2	Louisville (Big East)	New Mexico (MWC)	Georgetown	Florida (SEC)
15	Niagara (MAAC)	Long Beach St. (Big West)	Stony Brook (American East)	Princeton (Ivy)

Second Four in: Villanova, Saint Marys, Iowa State, Butler
Last Four in: Cincinnati, Temple, Boise State, Kentucky
First Four out: Mississippi, Baylor, Massachusetts, Tennessee
Second Four out: Iowa, Alabama, Southern Miss, Maryland

Bracket for games thru 3/1

This has been a pretty wild week for bracketing at the top of the bracket. Indiana, Duke, Michigan and Florida all lost. So who are the #1 seeds? After some thought, I believe Indiana, Gonzaga and Kansas are three of the #1 seeds at this point in time. The fourth number 1 seed should go to either Michigan State or the "winner" of the Big East. At this time, that would be Georgetown. However, Georgetown is the host of the East Region in Washington D.C., where the final #1 seed would be based on the other three, and is ineligible to play there. So, I'm going with Michigan State as the final #1 seed.

This was a very difficult bracket to fumble through. I feel like the bubble is "weak" right now as looking at bubble teams, I felt pretty good with have all the top 10 seed lines pretty safely in. Kentucky and Cincinnati are both pretty safely in the field as well. But, since Kentucky has a big question mark due to the Noel injury and Cincinnati keeps losing, I put them in a play-in game. I think St. Mary's is barely safe. They can only lose the conference championship game to Gonzaga to stay somewhat safe. Iowa State is in pretty good shape as well. The Pac-12 seems to be pretty wild this season, but California is a little ahead of the "pac"(sorry for the pun). That really leaves 3 bubble spots that look wide open at this time. Temple, Boise State and Villanova got these based on some pretty good numbers against top 25/50/100 RPI teams, etc. They have played more games against good competition than most teams due to quality/depth of their conferences.
Teams that are out include Baylor, who hasn't looked too good to me and is one of the first few teams out. The SEC's teams for the most part played weak not conference schedules, have so-so win/loss records and keep beating each other. After Florida, it's a big drop to Missouri and Kentucky. I'm not sold on Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU or any of the other SEC teams. I think the number of bubble-ish teams in the SEC will create some opportunities for a team to get hot a win a few conference games in a row to get in. Air Force and Charlotte are the sixth best teams in their leagues, but have decent resumes due to success in league play. Massachusetts is behind Charlotte in A-10. How does a team like that compare to Southern Miss, which has an almost empty resume compare? From the Pac-12, Stanford and Arizona State are both in consideration.

Regional	Indianapolis	Los Angeles	Arlington	Washington D.C.
1st 2 Rounds	Dayton	San Jose	Kansas City	Auburn Hills
1	Indiana (Big Ten)	Gonzaga (WCC)	Kansas (Big 12)	Michigan State
16	Norfolk State (MEAC)-Robert Morris (NEAC)	Mercer (Atlantic Sun)	Southern (SWAC)-High Point (Big South)	Northeastern (Colonial)
8	Missouri	San Diego State	Creighton (MVC)	North Carolina
9	NC State	Colorado	UCLA	VCU
1st 2 Rounds	Kansas City	Salt Lake City	Dayton	San Jose
5	Saint Louis (A-10)	Oklahoma State	Pittsburgh	UNLV
12	Villanova	Belmont (OVC)	Temple-Boise State	Iowa State
4	Kansas State	Wisconsin	Ohio State	Syracuse
13	Louisiana Tech (WAC)	Stephen F. Austin (Southland)	Akron (MAC)	Bucknell (Patriot)
1st 2 Rounds	Lexington	Austin	Auburn Hills	Austin
3	Miami (FL)	New Mexico (MWC)	Michigan	Florida (SEC)
14	Valparaiso (Horizon)	So. Dakota St. (Summit)	Davidson (Southern)	Montana (Big Sky)
6	Oregon	Notre Dame	Colorado State	Marquette
11	Mid. Tenn. St. (Sunbelt)	St. Mary's	Kentucky-Cincinnati	California
1st 2 Rounds	Philadelphia	Salt Lake City	Lexington	Philadelphia
7	Illinois	Memphis (C-USA)	Butler	Minnesota
10	La Salle	Oklahoma	Virginia	Wichita State
2	Georgetown (Big East)	Arizona (Pac-12)	Louisville	Duke (ACC)
15	Harvard (Ivy)	Long Beach St. (Big West)	Niagara (MAAC)	Stony Brook (American East)

ACC Breakdown

What are the outlooks for the various ACC teams for the NCAA tournament?

Duke is 24-3 overall, 11-3 in the ACC. They are 8-2 against the current RPI top 50, with 5 of the wins on neutral sites. The only knocks are 1. their best true road win is at Florida State with a road record of 4-3. They have two more shots to get pretty good road wins tomorrow at Virginia and in their final game on March 9 at North Carolina. 2. They are 9-3 in their last 12 without Brian Kelly.
Duke also has home games against Miami-Fl and Virginia Tech remaining. Duke hasn't lost this year on either their home floor or at a neutral site. Their 6-0 record at neutral sites is against teams that will likely be in the NCAA tournament. Even if Duke losses their final two road games, they have a little bit of shot at still snagging a #1 seed if they win the ACC Tournament, depending on what happens throughout the country. Duke's proven to play well at home, so I'm going to predict 2-2 to finish the season, but they will rebound with Brian Kelly back for the ACC tournament and will win it, getting a questionable #1 seed.

Miami (FL) is at 22-4, 13-1 in conference. They have several odd losses that make me think they don't serve a #1 seed. Double-digit losses to Florida Gulf Coast and Wake Forest lead the way. Both teams are in the triple digit RPIs. Neutral court losses to Indiana State and Arizona (by 19) are also concerns. They offset these with wins over Michigan State, La Salle, Duke, NC State (road) and a sweep of North Carolina. Saturday's matchup at Duke looms large and will probably be a loss. Georgia Tech an Clemson at home to finish the season should be wins, giving them a regular season outright conference championship. I think they have to beat Duke again either Saturday or in the ACC Tournament to get a #1 seed. I don't think that happens. They end up as a #2 seed.

North Carolina is 18-8 overall, 9-5 in conference. They were swept by Miami, splits with NC State and Virginia and have losses at Indiana, at Duke, a neutral site game with Butler and a pretty ugly one to RPI# 140 Texas 85-67. Their best win is over UNLV. Games remain @Clemson, Florida State, @Maryland and Duke. They will probably finish 3-1 and end up as 5, 6 or 7 seed.

North Carolina State is 19-8 overall, 8-6 in the ACC. The only read bad loss is at Wake Forest. The remaining schedule is pretty favorable- @Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, @Florida State. NCST's problem is that their losses this season are mounting. Their top two wins are conference splits with rivals, Duke and North Carolina. They have a neutral site 4 point win over in-eligible Connecticut. That doesn't quite cancel out a 20 point neutral site loss to Oklahoma State. While NC State is solidly in the tournament, they are out of the running to be a top 4 seed, unless they win the ACC tournament. Even then, it is unlikely they would climb high enough for a preferential site like Philadelphia or Lexington for their first two games. They'll probably end up somewhere around a #6 seed or #7 seed with their remaining schedule and other teams losing.

Virginia, upon further review, is actually in pretty good shape based on their quality wins. They are 19-8 overall, 9-5 in conference. They have good wins @Wisconsin, NC State and a split with North Carolina. Wins over fellow bubble temas Tennessee, Maryland, and Florida State (this is a major stretch) help a little, as they have no losses in the 25-125 RPI areas. At the same time, they have accumulated 6 losses to teams with RPIs of 133 and below. This includes a home loss to Delaware and a neutral site loss to Old Dominion that is at RPI #322 right now. The efficiency ratings like Virginia. They are probably a much better team than their results indicate. They have had the injury and sickness bug bite them pretty badly as well. Remaining games versus Duke, @Boston College, @Florida State, Maryland. My guess would be that Virginia loses to Duke before winning their last three. This has been a hard team to predict, for the most part either winning big or losing close games. They are probably looking at being in the tournament, but avoiding the play-in game right now. They would be a double digit seed if the season ended now.

Maryland is in big trouble now. They are 19-9 overall and 7-8 in the ACC after losing @Georgia Tech tonight. They are 3-7 against the RPI top 100. They only have three top 100 wins: NC State, Duke, and Stony Brook (#91). They were swept by Florida State and lost at home to Virginia. They also have losses at Boston College and at Georgia Tech. Remaining games @Wake Forest, North Carolina and @Virginia. These could all be losses, yet all three are pretty win-able as well. The only game I would "favor" them in would be @Wake Forest, but they just lost by 10 to Georgia Tech would is only slightly better. The Terps look like they are heading toward the NIT or worse.

I was going to discuss Florida State, but they now need to win the ACC tournament to make the tournament. They have 0-7 against the RPI top 50. No one else in the ACC gets any more consideration than that.

At this point, I think it's safe to put Duke, Miami (FL), North Carolina, and NC State in the tournament. Virginia needs to take advantage of their game against Duke tomorrow to solidify their bid. Looking at bubble teams right now based on the Bracket Matrix: Colorado, Cincinnati, Creighton, California, Iowa State, Saint Mary's, La Salle, Middle Tennessee (as at-large), Kentucky, Temple, Villanova, Mississippi, Virginia are in. Belmont, Akron and Louisiana Tech are in with Middle Tennessee as automatic bids, but may have a shot as an at-large if they lose in their conference tournament. Baylor, Maryland, Southern Miss, Arizona State, Tennessee, Charlotte, Iowa, Alabama, Indiana State, Massachusetts and St. John's are out. I would slot Virginia in the middle of the pack of teams that are in.

I'll get another bracket posted tomorrow. Losses by Indiana and Florida last night and Michigan tonight are shaking up the top of the bracket. That has a ripple effect moving downward.

Bubble teams losing tonight: Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Charlotte, Maryland, Arkansas, Wichita State and Oklahoma For the first five, this could be nearly a fatal blow for their chances. The entire Missouri Valley reputation is hurting as they beat themselves up. The final game of Wichita State versus Creighton will be for the outright conference title. The MVC tournament in St. Louis should be very competitive and very easily could produce a bid-stealer. Oklahoma gets their first bad loss of the year to Texas.

Bracket for games through 2/23

I still haven't found a format that "works" for me as far as my posts. I had intended to spotlight each conference every day leading up to the tournament and the chances of each team and its prospects for the tournament. Really thought, its all about the bracket. So with most of the games played for today, let's look at where we are with the bracket and my thought processes as I create a new one. I like to start from scratch each time as one result changes many of the match ups because of sending teams to the closest pod for geographical considerations.

Only teams to not lose a game against a team with an RPI currently lower than 50: Michigan State, Indiana, Michigan, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Memphis, Ohio State. I'm not sure if this random stat means anything, but these teams haven't been upset too badly this year.

Belmont, Middle Tennessee State are bubble teams, but also are considered "in" as the automatic bids from their conferences. So, I need 48 teams from the multi-bid conferences to fill the field.

Which teams are in the mix for a top seed?
ACC: Duke, Miami-Fl,
Big East: Georgetown, Louisville, Syracuse
Big Ten: Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan
Big 12: Kansas
Pac-12: Arizona
SEC: Florida
WCC: Gonzaga
I count 12 teams. These are the 1 thru 3 seeds at this point.

So which other teams are locks now? These teams can basically lose out and be in.
A-10: Saint Louis
Big East: Marquette, Pittsburgh
Big 10: Wisconsin, Ohio State
Big 12: Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Mountain West: New Mexico
There are 8 teams here. These are the #4 and #5 seeds.

Which teams should be in?
ACC: North Carolina, NC State
A-10: Butler, VCU
Big East: Notre Dame, Cincinnati
Big Ten: Illinois
Big 12: Iowa State, Oklahoma
C-USA: Memphis
MVC: Wichita State, Creighton
MWC: Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State
Pac-12: Oregon
This is the next 16. They will be seeded 6-9

Who else is in contention?
ACC: Virginia, Maryland, Florida State
A-10: La Salle, Temple, Xavier, Charlotte, Massachusetts
Big East: Villanova, St. John's
Big Ten: Minnesota, Iowa
Big 12: Baylor
Conference USA: Southern Miss
MVC: Indiana State, Northern Iowa
MWC: Air Force, Boise State, Wyoming
Pac 12: UCLA, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Stanford, Washington
SEC: Missouri, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M
West Coast: St. Mary's, BYU
This gives us 35 teams for the final 12 spots, assuming no upset conference tournament winners. Based on looking at the Big Ten carefully earlier this week, I feel pretty safe in predicting Minnesota being in. La Salle and Colorado have multiple big wins this year that I think make them stand out. Saint Mary's had the big bracket buster win over Creighton today. They only have 5 losses on the season. They will probably lose to Gonzaga in the WCC tournament championship game, but that won't cost them a bid.
The Pac12 and SEC are so wide open right now, it is hard to predict results and some in-depth research is needed. I'll go with common knowledge and the games I've seen: Missouri, Kentucky, UCLA, Arizona State, California, Alabama will be in.
This brings us down to two remaining teams and most of them have lots of work to do. I know Virginia has a tough remaining schedule. I think Maryland is better set up to move in. Villanova had a good win today at home versus Marquette.

#1 seeds: to me, Indiana is the clear #1 overall seed at this time. Everyone else has question marks. Duke is probably the next most obvious. However, after Ryan Kelly was injured, Duke is 8-3. They've held on their home court, but are 4-3 on the road since his injury. Also, three of the wins are at the bottom 3 in the league. Duke has time to recover, but their performance since his injury really doesn't justify a top seed at this point. However, I just heard that he is off crutches and may be back in time for the tournament. Florida is probably the next team to consider. I have a low opinion of the SEC and the Gators have beat up on them. They will be a #1 seed though. Michigan and Michigan State are both very good. I'm putting Michigan on top for more predictive reasons than the results thus far. Gonzaga deserves consideration as well despite a weaker schedule. 1 Seeds:  Indiana, Michigan, Florida, Duke

#2 seeds: The winner of the Big East will be here, if not on the #1 seed line, but who will it be--Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, even Marquette. The remainder of the Big Ten top trio will be here as well. Gonzaga and Kansas get consideration as well. Kansas is 10-3 against the RPI top 50 right now. Does Miami-Fl stay a 2? 2 seeds: Michigan State, Louisville, Kansas, Gonzaga


3 seeds: Georgetown, Syracuse, Miami-Fl, Arizona
4 seeds: New Mexico, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Ohio State
5 seeds: Oklahoma State, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Saint Louis


6 seeds: Colorado State, Oregon, Cincinnati, North Carolina
7 seeds: Butler, Creighton, Illinois, UNLV
8 seeds: Iowa State, Notre Dame, VCU, San Diego State
9 seeds: Wichita State, NC State, Oklahoma, Memphis

10 seeds: Minnesota, La Salle, Colorado, St. Mary's
11 seeds: Missouri, UCLA, Kentucky, Maryland
12 seeds: California, Villanova, Arizona State, Alabama, Middle Tennessee State, Belmont
13 seeds: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Bucknell, Davidson
14 seeds: Stephen F Austin, Valparaiso, Long Beach State, South Dakota State
15 seeds: Montana, Harvard, Stony Brook, Niagara
16 seeds: Northeastern, Mercer, Norfolk State, High Point, Robert Morris, Southern

Regional	Indianapolis	Los Angeles	Arlington	Washington D.C.
1st 2 Rounds	Dayton	Auburn Hills	Lexington	Philadelphia
1	Indiana (Big Ten)	Michigan	Florida (SEC)	Duke (ACC)
16	High Point (Big South)-Robert Morris (NEAC)	Northeastern (Colonial)	Mercer (Atlantic Sun)	Norfolk St (MEAC)-Southern (SWAC)
8	Notre Dame	VCU	Iowa State	San Diego State
9	Wichita State	NC State	Memphis (C-USA)	Oklahoma
1st 2 Rounds	Kansas City	Austin	San Jose	Salt Lake City
5	Saint Louis (A-10)	Oklahoma State	Pittsburgh	Marquette
12	Arizona State-Alabama	Villanova-California	Belmont (OVC)	Mid. Tenn. St. (Sunbelt)
4	Kansas State	New Mexico (MWC)	Wisconsin	Ohio State
13	Akron (MAC)	Louisiana Tech (WAC)	Davidson (SoCon)	Bucknell (Patriot)
1st 2 Rounds	Austin	Salt Lake City	Philadelphia	Dayton
3	Miami-FL	Arizona (Pac-12)	Georgetown	Syracuse
14	Stephen F. Austin (Southland)	Long Beach State (Big West)	South Dakota State (Summit)	Valparaiso (Horizon)
6	Colorado State	Cincinnati	North Carolina	Oregon
11	UCLA	Maryland	Missouri	Kentucky
1st 2 Rounds	Lexington	San Jose	Kansas City	Auburn Hills
7	Butler	Illinois	Creighton	UNLV
10	Minnesota	La Salle	Colorado	Saint Mary's
2	Louisville (Big East)	Gonzaga (WCC)	Kansas (Big 12)	Michigan State
15	Stony Brook (Amer East)	Montana (Big Sky)	Niagara (MAAC)	Harvard (Ivy)