Only teams to not lose a game against a team with an RPI currently lower than 50: Michigan State, Indiana, Michigan, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Memphis, Ohio State. I'm not sure if this random stat means anything, but these teams haven't been upset too badly this year.
Belmont, Middle Tennessee State are bubble teams, but also are considered "in" as the automatic bids from their conferences. So, I need 48 teams from the multi-bid conferences to fill the field.
Which teams are in the mix for a top seed?
ACC: Duke, Miami-Fl,
Big East: Georgetown, Louisville, Syracuse
Big Ten: Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan
Big 12: Kansas
I count 12 teams. These are the 1 thru 3 seeds at this point.
So which other teams are locks now? These teams can basically lose out and be in.
A-10: Saint Louis
Big East: Marquette, Pittsburgh
Big 10: Wisconsin, Ohio State
Big 12: Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Mountain West: New Mexico
There are 8 teams here. These are the #4 and #5 seeds.
Which teams should be in?
ACC: North Carolina, NC State
A-10: Butler, VCU
Big East: Notre Dame, Cincinnati
Big Ten: Illinois
Big 12: Iowa State, Oklahoma
MVC: Wichita State, Creighton
MWC: Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State
This is the next 16. They will be seeded 6-9
Who else is in contention?
ACC: Virginia, Maryland, Florida State
A-10: La Salle, Temple, Xavier, Charlotte, Massachusetts
Big East: Villanova, St. John's
Big Ten: Minnesota, Iowa
Big 12: Baylor
Conference USA: Southern Miss
MVC: Indiana State, Northern Iowa
MWC: Air Force, Boise State, Wyoming
Pac 12: UCLA, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Stanford, Washington
SEC: Missouri, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M
West Coast: St. Mary's, BYU
This gives us 35 teams for the final 12 spots, assuming no upset conference tournament winners. Based on looking at the Big Ten carefully earlier this week, I feel pretty safe in predicting Minnesota being in. La Salle and Colorado have multiple big wins this year that I think make them stand out. Saint Mary's had the big bracket buster win over Creighton today. They only have 5 losses on the season. They will probably lose to Gonzaga in the WCC tournament championship game, but that won't cost them a bid.
The Pac12 and SEC are so wide open right now, it is hard to predict results and some in-depth research is needed. I'll go with common knowledge and the games I've seen: Missouri, Kentucky, UCLA, Arizona State, California, Alabama will be in.
This brings us down to two remaining teams and most of them have lots of work to do. I know Virginia has a tough remaining schedule. I think Maryland is better set up to move in. Villanova had a good win today at home versus Marquette.
#1 seeds: to me, Indiana is the clear #1 overall seed at this time. Everyone else has question marks. Duke is probably the next most obvious. However, after Ryan Kelly was injured, Duke is 8-3. They've held on their home court, but are 4-3 on the road since his injury. Also, three of the wins are at the bottom 3 in the league. Duke has time to recover, but their performance since his injury really doesn't justify a top seed at this point. However, I just heard that he is off crutches and may be back in time for the tournament. Florida is probably the next team to consider. I have a low opinion of the SEC and the Gators have beat up on them. They will be a #1 seed though. Michigan and Michigan State are both very good. I'm putting Michigan on top for more predictive reasons than the results thus far. Gonzaga deserves consideration as well despite a weaker schedule. 1 Seeds: Indiana, Michigan, Florida, Duke
#2 seeds: The winner of the Big East will be here, if not on the #1 seed line, but who will it be--Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, even Marquette. The remainder of the Big Ten top trio will be here as well. Gonzaga and Kansas get consideration as well. Kansas is 10-3 against the RPI top 50 right now. Does Miami-Fl stay a 2? 2 seeds: Michigan State, Louisville, Kansas, Gonzaga
3 seeds: Georgetown, Syracuse, Miami-Fl, Arizona
4 seeds: New Mexico, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Ohio State
5 seeds: Oklahoma State, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Saint Louis
6 seeds: Colorado State, Oregon, Cincinnati, North Carolina
7 seeds: Butler, Creighton, Illinois, UNLV
8 seeds: Iowa State, Notre Dame, VCU, San Diego State
9 seeds: Wichita State, NC State, Oklahoma, Memphis
10 seeds: Minnesota, La Salle, Colorado, St. Mary's
11 seeds: Missouri, UCLA, Kentucky, Maryland
12 seeds: California, Villanova, Arizona State, Alabama, Middle Tennessee State, Belmont
13 seeds: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Bucknell, Davidson
14 seeds: Stephen F Austin, Valparaiso, Long Beach State, South Dakota State
15 seeds: Montana, Harvard, Stony Brook, Niagara
16 seeds: Northeastern, Mercer, Norfolk State, High Point, Robert Morris, Southern
|Regional||Indianapolis||Los Angeles||Arlington||Washington D.C.|
|1st 2 Rounds||Dayton||Auburn Hills||Lexington||Philadelphia|
|1||Indiana (Big Ten)||Michigan||Florida (SEC)||Duke (ACC)|
|16||High Point (Big South)-Robert Morris (NEAC)||Northeastern (Colonial)||Mercer (Atlantic Sun)||Norfolk St (MEAC)-Southern (SWAC)|
|8||Notre Dame||VCU||Iowa State||San Diego State|
|9||Wichita State||NC State||Memphis (C-USA)||Oklahoma|
|1st 2 Rounds||Kansas City||Austin||San Jose||Salt Lake City|
|5||Saint Louis (A-10)||Oklahoma State||Pittsburgh||Marquette|
|12||Arizona State-Alabama||Villanova-California||Belmont (OVC)||Mid. Tenn. St. (Sunbelt)|
|4||Kansas State||New Mexico (MWC)||Wisconsin||Ohio State|
|13||Akron (MAC)||Louisiana Tech (WAC)||Davidson (SoCon)||Bucknell (Patriot)|
|1st 2 Rounds||Austin||Salt Lake City||Philadelphia||Dayton|
|14||Stephen F. Austin (Southland)||Long Beach State (Big West)||South Dakota State (Summit)||Valparaiso (Horizon)|
|6||Colorado State||Cincinnati||North Carolina||Oregon|
|1st 2 Rounds||Lexington||San Jose||Kansas City||Auburn Hills|
|10||Minnesota||La Salle||Colorado||Saint Mary's|
|2||Louisville (Big East)||Gonzaga (WCC)||Kansas (Big 12)||Michigan State|
|15||Stony Brook (Amer East)||Montana (Big Sky)||Niagara (MAAC)||Harvard (Ivy)|